Despite a General Softening Trend from 12 Months Ago, ManpowerGroup’s Global Hiring Confidence Index Shows Positive Third-Quarter Hiring Ahead in Most Labor Markets
Indian Labor Market Motors Ahead as Germany Loses Steam; U.S. Continues Steady Improvement
MILWAUKEE, June 12, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — According to ManpowerGroup’s (NYSE:MAN) third-quarter 2012 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today, hiring activity is expected to slow from last year at this time in two-thirds of the countries and territories surveyed. The survey reveals few clear signs of notable traction in the labor market, and employers are evidently adopting an intermittent hiring approach in response to economic uncertainty both at home and abroad. Bucking this trend, Indian employers post one of their most optimistic forecasts on record, and U.S. job prospects continue to improve. On the other hand, the German labor market is expected to lose steam in the quarter ahead after defying the declining trend in Europe for more than a year. Research shows employers in 33 of 41 countries and territories surveyed expect varying degrees of positive hiring activity for the third quarter, with those in 32 labor markets anticipating relatively stable or improved hiring activity compared to the second quarter. However, employer hiring expectations weaken in 26 markets compared to this time last year.
“In labor markets around the world, we are seeing companies hire in a start-stop mode with no real consistency. There is no doubt that the ongoing concerns and uncertainty in Europe continue to weigh on the minds of employers in the global labor market and four consecutive quarters of softening in our German data reflect this,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman and CEO of ManpowerGroup. “The hiring boom should continue in India with the market experiencing the repatriation of talent from Europe and North America as Indian nationals return to take advantage of opportunity – and perhaps more security – at home. Meanwhile, the U.S. outlook represents two straight years of steady improvement and while we haven’t seen meaningful job creation yet, there are more opportunities for job seekers with the right skills.”
The ManpowerGroup research shows varying degrees of positive hiring activity in 33 of 41 countries and territories with the strongest third-quarter forecasts coming from employers in India, Taiwan, Brazil, Turkey and Singapore. Compared to the second quarter, hiring activity is expected to be relatively stable or improved in 32 labor markets and weaken in 16. Compared to one year ago, job prospects weaken in 26 countries and territories, and improve or remain relatively stable in 19. Worldwide, employer hiring expectations are weakest in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Hungary.
The short-term hiring outlook across the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region is largely stable with hiring activity expected to be relatively stable or improved in 20 of the 23 countries. However, the year-over-year comparison reveals Net Employment Outlooks weaken in 17 countries. Regional hiring plans are strongest in Turkey, Israel, Bulgaria, Romania and Norway, and weakest in Greece.
“The buoyant forecast in Turkey is due, in part, by optimism in the Public sector as the Labor Ministry has approved funding for 34,000 new positions in the government and an aggressive recruitment initiative for Education,” said Joerres. “Illustrating the changing tide in Germany, many large companies there such as Bayer, Opel and Osram plan downsizings in the months ahead. Similarly, Netherlands employers report their first negative forecast since 2Q 2010 and the weakest outlook for the Manufacturing sector since we’ve been conducting our research.”
Employer hiring plans remain positive across all 10 countries Manpower surveys in the Americas, with Net Employment Outlooks declining from three months ago in six countries. On a more positive note, hiring activity is expected to remain relatively stable or improve in six countries in comparison to last year. Regional hiring expectations are strongest in Brazil, Panama and Peru, and weakest in the U.S. and Argentina. The result for the U.S. represents the strongest forecast since the third quarter of 2008.
“Contributing to the bright outlook in Brazil are bullish hiring expectations in the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector, where we’re seeing the impact of government measures to cut interest rates to encourage consumer spending and growth,” said Joerres. “Despite posting the strongest forecast in the Americas, the outlook from Brazil’s employers – as well as Argentina’s – is notably more cautious than three months ago and signals the weakest forecast since 1Q 2010. Meanwhile, in the U.S. hiring is being led by demand in the Leisure and Hospitality and Professional Business Services sectors.”
With the exception of Australia, hiring expectations remain stable or improve from three months ago in all labor markets ManpowerGroup surveys in the Asia Pacific region. Compared to 12 months ago, Net Employment Outlooks decline in five of eight countries and territories, with the most notable decline occurring in Australia, where job prospects weaken across all industry sectors. As was the case last quarter, Indian and Taiwanese employers report the strongest plans in the region, while those in Australia report the weakest third-quarter job prospects. In Japan, a seven-quarter improvement trend continues, boosted by the most optimistic Manufacturing forecast since 2Q 2008.
“Despite the overall slowdown projected for the Australian market, job prospects in the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector are bucking the trend as some financial institutions, such as the Bank of Melbourne, are looking to staff up and open branches to capture market share while their competitors clamp down on costs,” said Joerres. “In India, Services-sector hiring continues to be strong, while rapid growth in the Retail sector – due partly to the relaxed legislation regarding single-brand retail – is causing structural talent shortages that the Retailers Association of India hopes to combat with the training of five million people in the next five years. Like India, demand in Services is also fuelling optimism in Taiwan as employers in its thriving Tourism segment struggle to find the right talent. Meanwhile, the strong forecasts for China’s Chonqing, Wuhan and Suzhou regions this quarter illustrate how companies are moving operations inland to the central and west regions from South China coastal hubs as a means of offsetting labor arbitrage.”
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 11 September 2012 to report hiring expectations for the fourth quarter of 2012. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is available free of charge to the public through their local Manpower representative in participating countries. To receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, please complete an online subscription form at: http://manpowergroup.com/investors/alerts.cfm.
About the Survey
The global leader in innovative workforce solutions, ManpowerGroup releases the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the longest running, most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, polling over 65,000 employers in 41 countries and territories. The survey serves as a bellwether of labor market trends and activities and is regularly used to inform the Bank of England’s Inflation Reports, as well as a regular data source for the European Commission, informing its EU Employment Situation and Social Outlook report the Monthly Monitor. ManpowerGroup’s independent survey data is also sourced by financial analysts and economists around the world to help determine where labor markets are headed.
ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN), the world leader in innovative workforce solutions, creates and delivers high-impact solutions that enable our clients to achieve their business goals and enhance their competitiveness. With over 60 years of experience, our $22 billion company creates unique time to value through a comprehensive suite of innovative solutions that help clients win in the Human Age. These solutions cover an entire range of talent-driven needs from recruitment and assessment, training and development, and career management, to outsourcing and workforce consulting. ManpowerGroup maintains the world’s largest and industry-leading network of nearly 3,900 offices in over 80 countries and territories, generating a dynamic mix of an unmatched global footprint with valuable insight and local expertise to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, across all industry sectors, small and medium-sized enterprises, local, multinational and global companies. By connecting our deep understanding of human potential to the ambitions of clients, ManpowerGroup helps the organizations and individuals we serve achieve more than they imagined — because their success leads to our success. And by creating these powerful connections, we create power that drives organizations forward, accelerates personal success and builds more sustainable communities. We help power the world of work. The ManpowerGroup suite of solutions is offered through ManpowerGroup™ Solutions, Manpower®, Experis™ and Right Management®. Learn more about how ManpowerGroup can help you win in the Human Age at http://www.manpowergroup.com.
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